Scott Feinberg, executive editor for awards at The Hollywood Reporter, provides his latest analysis of the Oscar race, evaluating 20 categories as October nears its end and the presidential election approaches.
Amid the excitement of Hollywood, Academy members attended the AFI Fest, where several notable premieres occurred. Disney’s Music by John Williams premiered on October 23, followed by the L.A. debuts of Janus/Sideshow’s All We Imagine as Light, A24’s Heretic, and Sony Classics’ The Room Next Door on October 24. October 25 saw the world premiere of Sony’s Here, along with the L.A. premieres of I’m Still Here, Amazon/MGM’s Nickel Boys, Searchlight’s Nightbitch, and Vertical’s The Order. On October 26, Netflix’s Maria and others premiered, while October 27 featured Juror No. 2 and Netflix’s Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Enthusiasm was high for Angelina Jolie’s performance in Maria, while reactions to Here and Juror No. 2 were more subdued.
In addition to festival premieres, official Academy screenings took place. In Los Angeles, notable films included Briarcliff/Rich Spirit’s The Apprentice on October 25, and Netflix’s The Remarkable Life of Ibelin and Nickel Boys on October 26. In New York, Nickel Boys screened on October 24, and London hosted Neon’s Anora on October 22. A24’s The Brutalist also screened on October 27, receiving positive feedback from Academy members, including director Sean Baker.
The Gotham Awards have expanded eligibility beyond indie films, as shown by the nominations announced on October 29. Anora led the nominations with four, including Best Feature, competing against films like A24’s Babygirl and Amazon/MGM’s Challengers.
In the documentary category, the recent announcement of shortlists from the Cinema Eye Honors, Critics Choice Documentary Awards, International Documentary Awards, and DOC NYC has clarified the race. Notably, Sugarcane and The Remarkable Life of Ibelin appeared on all four lists. Sugarcane gained additional recognition following President Biden’s recent apology for the federal government’s role in abusive boarding schools for Native children, bringing attention to related historical issues.
However, The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru, China’s entry for Best International Feature, was deemed ineligible due to a lack of predominantly non-English dialogue. While it remains eligible for Best Documentary Feature, China cannot submit a new candidate for the international category.
Turning to box office performance, Focus’ Conclave earned $6.6 million during its opening weekend, placing fourth among all films. Anora, in its second week, grossed $908,830 across 34 theaters, achieving the highest per-theater average at $26,730. Looking ahead, three more awards contenders—Apple’s Blitz, Here, and A Real Pain—will enter limited release next weekend.
For ongoing updates and predictions, readers can bookmark the forecast URL. Feinberg emphasizes that his analysis is based on screenings, consultations with voters, and historical results, aiming to predict outcomes rather than advocate for favorites. The forecast will be updated weekly, usually on Mondays.
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