Gold Derby has been forecasting the Oscars and other Hollywood awards for over two decades. Recently, we sought to compare our predictions for the Academy Awards with those generated by a new competitor: artificial intelligence.
On November 16, we tasked Gemini, Google’s latest AI tool, with predicting nominations in six key categories for the 2025 Oscars.
These categories include Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, Best Lead Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. The results of these predictions are detailed below. For those unfamiliar with it, Gemini is a chatbot that uses machine learning and natural language processing to provide human-like responses to various prompts.
In contrast, Gold Derby’s Oscar forecasts are based on insights from four distinct groups. These include experts surveyed from major media outlets, editors who track awards continuously for our platform, the top 24 users with the most accurate predictions from the previous year, and a broad base of users contributing to our largest prediction segment.
One notable difference between the AI’s selections and Gold Derby’s choices is the AI’s strong belief in Joker: Folie à Deux for Best Actor with Joaquin Phoenix and Best Actress with Lady Gaga. It is important to note that Gaga is being promoted for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars. However, the lukewarm reviews from critics and underwhelming box office performance present significant challenges for Joker as it navigates the awards landscape.
As awards season progresses, we will continue to update the AI’s predictions. We will find out who has the most accurate forecasts when the winners are announced on March 2, 2025.
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