It’s Scorsese versus Swift at the box office.
Martin Scorsese’s star-studded crime epic “Killers of the Flower Moon,” the only new release nationwide this weekend, is targeting $20 million to $30 million from its debut in 3,621 North American theatres. But it won’t be able to compete with last weekend’s champion, Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour,” which will once again take the lead in its second outing with $30 million to $40 million.
Paramount Pictures is distributing the $200 million-budgeted “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which was backed by Apple and will land on its streaming service at a later date. Box office experts are divided on whether its projected debut of mid-$20 million is disappointing for such an expensive film or impressive for an adult drama that runs nearly three and a half hours. It’s unclear what a streaming giant like Apple (which is paying Paramount a distribution fee) considers a success in theatrical release. Either way, it’s a bold bet on the big screen for Apple, marking the widest release ever for a film backed by a streaming service. Later this year, Apple plans to release Ridley Scott’s sweeping historical drama ‘Napoleon’ in partnership with Sony.
The opening weekend of the R-rated “Killers of the Flower Moon” will depend on a number of factors, including a lengthy running time that will limit the number of screenings per day. But that hasn’t stopped long films such as Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” or “The Eras Tour” from raking in the big bucks this year. The ongoing actors’ strike has also limited press opportunities for stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Lily Gladstone, Jesse Plemons and Brendan Fraser, and meant that Scorsese has done most of the promotion since the film’s Cannes premiere.
“Killers of the Flower Moon” is adapted from David Grann’s 2017 novel about the mysterious murders that took place after major oil deposits were discovered on Osage Nation land in the early 1920s, and the newly formed FBI’s investigation into the bloodshed. It’s Scorsese’s first film to be released in cinemas since 2016’s religious drama Silence, which didn’t exactly resonate with audiences despite rave reviews. The film, which starred Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver as Jesuit priests searching for their mentor in Japan, grossed just $7.1 million domestically and $23 million worldwide against a $50 million budget. Between then and now, Scorsese directed 2019’s The Irishman, which got a token theatrical release before landing on Netflix, and Bob Dylan music doc Rolling Thunder Revue, which also went to Netflix.
Unless the projections for “Killers of the Flower Moon” or “The Eras Tour” are wildly off, Swift’s concert film should remain comfortably in first place. Although ticket sales are expected to drop dramatically from its $92.8 million debut, The Eras Tour is already a massive commercial winner. The film, which has grossed $123 million worldwide, cost around $15 million to produce and required a smaller marketing spend than the average blockbuster.
The film’s box office performance is difficult to track due to its unusual scheduling (it is not released on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays). Although it’s playing in far fewer cinemas than the average nationwide release, audiences only have the opportunity to see the film from Thursday to Sunday, so there are no midweek grosses to add to the weekend total.
Further complicating any projections, Swift has priced admission at $19.89, in reference to her birth year and 2014 album, for adults, and $13.13, in reference to her lucky number, for children and seniors – making tickets more expensive than the national average.
The higher ticket prices haven’t deterred the Swifties. “The Eras Tour is already the highest-grossing concert film in North America, surpassing 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never” ($73 million), and the second-biggest worldwide behind 2009’s “Michael Jackson: This Is It” ($261 million). Needless to say, it’s a much-needed boost for cinema owners this autumn.
