Will the box office hit $9 billion in 2023? That’s what analysts have predicted, or at least hoped, domestic grosses would end up at. And there are no fewer than eight new releases in the next 14 days that could help cinemas finish the year having passed that coveted figure.
But after a 12-month period in which two labour strikes wreaked havoc on a business that’s still recovering from the pandemic, Hollywood may find it hard to get its happily ever after.
As of 17 December, the domestic box office has taken in $8.58 billion, according to Comscore. That’s about $416 million shy of $9 billion. Wherever ticket sales end up, it’s already the highest-grossing year since COVID upended the cinema industry – well ahead of 2022’s $7.46 billion haul and 2021’s $4.56 billion. But it’s not quite back to pre-pandemic levels, when the box office comfortably reached $10 billion to $11 billion a year. Part of the decline is due to Hollywood studios releasing fewer films. There were 88 films released in 2023, compared with 108 in 2019, when ticket sales reached $10.5 billion.
The next two weeks will see several high-profile releases, including Universal and Illumination’s animated “Migration,” Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s romantic comedy “Anyone But You,” Warner’s musical adaptation of “The Color Purple,” the DC Comics sequel “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and A24’s sports drama “The Iron Claw.” Then there’s Neon’s racing drama Ferrari, George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat and literary satire American Fiction, all of which will hit the big screen before the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve.
“The pressure is on for [these] films to deliver big to get us to $9 billion for the full year domestically,” says Comscore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
In recent years, a single blockbuster – 2022’s Avatar: The Way of the Water and Spider-Man: No Way Home – has completely dominated the Christmas box office. But this time, says Dergarabedian, “the wealth will be spread across several films”.
The problem is that exhibitors aren’t expecting a billion-dollar behemoth to end the year. And even if the scheduled films do well at the box office, they’re not expected to collectively match the money generated by the last two holiday seasons.
Cinema owners believe that the day of the week of a holiday can work for or against moviegoing. This year, they’re not too thrilled about Christmas and New Year’s Eve falling on Sundays. It’s better for attendance (and popcorn sales) if they fall on a Thursday or Friday.
“In some years, getting another $417 million on the books in the home stretch of the year would be a cakewalk,” says Dergarabedian. “But this year it’s more of a crapshoot with some unique variables.”
